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AP VoteCast

Polling data you can trust

Rely on the research that explains not just who wins on Election Day, but why. For more than a century, AP has tabulated election results and declared winners. Now, with AP VoteCast, we also offer customers access to the polling data that informs our race calls and provides newsrooms with a more accurate and robust portrait of the American electorate than ever before.

AP VoteCast isn't an exit poll. It's better.

A modern approach to election polling, developed by AP and NORC at the University of Chicago

Absentee vote is submitted in Doral, Florida.

Designed to reflect the way Americans vote today

In 2016, more than 40% of the electorate voted early, absentee or by mail. Unlike the legacy exit poll, AP VoteCast meets registered voters where they are, reaching them via mail, by phone (landline and cell phone) and online, using a random sample of registered voters to carefully calibrate a massive poll conducted using opt-in online panels.

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Built on success

In its 2018 debut, AP VoteCast delivered the accurate, unbiased results that today’s newsrooms demand. In just one of its many successes, AP VoteCast's projections at 5 p.m. on Election Day were correct in 92 percent of races for Senate and governor. Data about the electorate’s age, gender, racial and ethnic makeup, and its level of education, largely matched results produced months later by the U.S. Census Bureau’s benchmark Current Population Survey.

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Captures a deeper, broader picture of the electorate

AP VoteCast extends beyond the traditional battleground states. It captures the opinions of registered voters who cast a ballot early, on Election Day or not all. By gathering data from a sample size more than six times the size of the legacy exit poll, our survey provides greater insight into various subsets of the population, including Mormons, Muslims, Jews, Latinos, veterans and other groups of voters.

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Equips journalists and researchers for local storytelling

Subscribers to AP VoteCast get access to the same data that informs AP’s race calls, empowering them to report on the results and stories that matter most to their audience. Following the election, all AP VoteCast data is ultimately made available to the public, allowing for academic research and peer review of the survey’s results and the methods used to achieve them.

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2018 AP VoteCast data available for download

With its debut in the 2018 U.S. midterm elections, AP VoteCast set the new standard in election research. In our commitment to transparency, AP and NORC at the University of Chicago have made the 2018 data publicly available for download and presented a detailed report on its success at the 2019 AAPOR conference.

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Get in touch to learn more and add AP VoteCast to your Election Day coverage