A deep-dive collaboration between the Washington and Latin America teams showed that the Trump administration’s math for calculating Venezuela’s oil reserves doesn’t hold up to scrutiny and that the amount of recoverable crude, including the share earmarked for U.S. control, is vastly overestimated. The hybrid fact-check/investigative story laid out why the huge number the president regularly touts is deeply suspect, an analysis no other media outlet has provided.
Weeks of source work raised questions about the data behind the numbers the White House was using, leading reporters Collin Binkley and Regina Garcia Cano back to a 2011 audit of Venezuela’s oil reserves. Their work illustrated that Trump’s promise of a slam-dunk payday may be far less lucrative, with major challenges posed by aging oil infrastructure and technical hurdles in the oil-rich Orinoco region.
The two found experts and sources with deep knowledge of Venezuela’s oil sector who detailed how former President Hugo Chávez’s government used its own math, disregarding an independent auditor, to produce exaggerated estimates of its reserves. The inflated figures launched Venezuela to the top of OPEC’s world rankings, and they continue to be used despite widespread skepticism. Trump has continued to rely on those figures as he describes a massive amount of oil that awaits extraction.
Piecing together that history and tracing it to the White House numbers relied on strong source work, with input from former oil executives, geologists, scholars and former Venezuelan energy officials. Binkley and Garcia Cano also pressed experts to provide a more accurate estimate of Venezuela’s reserves and the share covered by Trump’s deal.
Top Stories Deputy Editor Janelle Cogan wrangled the text, video journalist Juan Arraez handled the video, and visual artist Kevin Vineys and White House Editor Roberta Rampton worked on graphic elements to produce a package with deep narrative and visual appeal.
Judges noted not only the surprising revelations but also the invaluable peek into the black box that houses this key component of the U.S.-Venezuela relationship.
For their initiative, extensive sourcing and illuminating visuals, Garcia Cano, Binkley, Cogan and Arraez are this week’s Best of the AP — Second Winner.
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